Gas security rewrites the LNG map

Two developments are redrawing the map of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Russia was once a cornerstone of Europe’s gas security, but, since 2022, sanctions over the Russia-Ukraine war have cut off the supply. Now conflict in the Middle East is disrupting LNG assets and the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries 20% of the world’s LNG trade. Unsettled buyers are looking for a stable supply – and producers outside these affected regions are capitalising on the demand, using it to push export projects over the line.

Gas security is top of the agenda, and demand keeps climbing: coal-to-gas switching in Asia, rising power consumption from data centres, electrification, grid balancing, and gas-intensive industries such as fertiliser production are all adding load. The International Gas Union expects global liquefaction capacity to surpass 700 million metric tonnes per annum (MMtpa) by 2030, risking oversupply before the market rebalances by the mid-2030s.

Fixed-bottom bankability is not guaranteed

North America’s LNG capacity is set to grow by 543MMtpa through 2035, according to EICDataStream, with the US alone accounting for 438.51MMtpa. Most growth will land between 2029 and 2031, peaking in 2031, when 89.1MMtpa is expected to be added. Canada will contribute a further 43.4MMtpa, mostly between 2027 and 2031, while Mexico will add 61.14MMtpa more evenly across the period, leaning on smaller-scale and floating LNG projects.

US has expanded capacity at the existing  Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG facilities, while new projects, including Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3, have added further volumes. The US share of EU LNG imports has risen to 58%, from 48% in 2023. Final investment decisions (FIDs) have run hot since 2025 and were further boosted in 2026; six projects have reached FID since Trump took office in 2025 and lifted the moratorium on LNG export permits. Since the start of the war with Iran, three projects have received FID: CP2 Phase 2, Delfin LNG and Commonwealth LNG.

With government backing and buyer interest from Japan, Korea, China and India, Canada is positioning itself as a more significant supplier over the coming years. LNG Canada, a Shell project and the country’s only operational export facility, started up in June 2025 with 14MMtpa; a decision on doubling that output is expected by the end of 2026 with phase 2 of the project.

Mexico’s strategy centres on exporting US feed gas, channelled through facilities such as the Altamira floating LNG (FLNG) hub and the recently operational Costa Azul terminal. FLNG lets Mexico build capacity faster and more flexibly than conventional onshore plants, often through partnerships such as New Fortress Energy and state utility CFE, which supplies feed gas via its pipeline network. One project, the Amigo FLNG Export Terminal (Phase 1), is expected to achieve FID this year, adding 4.2MMtpa by 2028. With 11 projects in the pipeline up to 2035, Mexico could add more than 61MMtpa of liquefaction capacity to the market.

Argentina is stepping up as an LNG exporter, powered by the Vaca Muerta shale play. Last year marked a milestone, with the Southern Energy FLNG project reaching FID, backed by a consortium of major domestic and international players. The project is expected to deliver 6MMtpa of export capacity by the end of the decade. Argentina LNG (Phase 3), led by YPF, Eni and XGR, has already secured offtake agreements in Europe and Asia, with FID expected this year. Argentina holds 2.5% of the world’s approved liquefaction capacity, and a further 24MMtpa pre-FID.

The US accounts for 67% of the 814MMtpa of global liquefaction capacity under development to 2035. Geopolitical uncertainty and the push for supply diversification will open further space for projects in Canada, Mozambique and Argentina, among others.

Middle East: Qatar and the UAE under fire

Qatar’s Ras Laffan and the UAE’s Das Island together account for around 82.4MMtpa of liquefaction capacity – roughly 20% of world LNG supply – and both have faced severe disruption, with LNG tankers struggling to transit the Strait of Hormuz amid security risks. Missile strikes damaged two liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan and wiped out 17% of Qatar’s exports; repairs are expected to take up to five years. LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by 25.7MMtpa cumulatively between March and June. Combined with the delays to Qatar’s North Field East expansion, the disruption is expected to leave a cumulative shortfall of 88.2MMtpa in global supply from 2026 to 2030.

Before the strikes, Qatar had been expanding its Ras Laffan LNG liquefaction trains, with Qatar Energy targeting start-up in 2027. Two expansions are planned, adding 31.2MMtpa and 15.6MMtpa. Despite the uncertainty, regional producers are taking a longer view – Adnoc’s US$900m order for four LNG carriers, due for delivery in 2029, is a case in point.

A pipeline of opportunity

The outlook is positive, driven by demand from coal-to-gas switching in Asia, rising power needs from data centres and electrification, grid balancing and gas-intensive industries. While most proposed capacity is US-based, projects are diversifying across the globe. FLNGs are central to this expansion, helping developers in markets such as Mexico and Argentina bring capacity online faster, which should sustain order flow for shipyards, engineering contractors and equipment suppliers. Gas security concerns and rising demand point to a healthy pipeline of opportunities for the supply chain.

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Contact: diveena.danabalan@the-eic.com

By Rodrigo Matsuda

Image credit | iStock